“Our system is predicting a warmer event than many other ,” Yeager said. They then compared that historical data with computer model forecasts, which unveiled the potential for a super El Niño this winter. They took atmospheric conditions into account - warmth, humidity and wind- as well as the state of oceans, ice and land. “We are looking at the potential of a major season-long event that could impact people and their livelihoods.”įor Yeager’s model, he and his team analyzed historical conditions from 1970 to 2019. “It’s only been seen three times previously in the historical record,” said Stephen Yeager, project scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. At the end of it, 17 people had died and the state suffered nearly $1 billion in damage. That winter saw a great deluge across the state, as rivers swelled, mudslides destroyed homes and roads filled with debris. While most predictions of the intensity of El Niño range from moderate to strong this year, one forecasting group is predicting what they classify as a super El Niño on par with 1997–98. “The closer we are to that winter rainy season forecast, obviously the better the prediction will be,” said John Chiang, a UC Berkeley climate scientist. “Climate models are showing this ambivalent pattern for California this winter,” he said.Īs for a timeline, researchers think that peak impacts - big atmospheric rivers that drop a ton of rain - could arrive in the New Year through early spring. Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services, said the relationship between El Niño and Bay Area impacts is not always clear and that the best thing to do as a California resident is to prepare for the worst outcome. That’s because it’s usually only in the worst El Niño years that the entire state gets soaked - Southern California, on the other hand, has a slight tendency toward wetter conditions even in moderate El Niño years. The scientists note that while a stronger El Niño can increase the likelihood of weather anomalies, it does “not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.” There’s a 30% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño event, which could rival the ferocity of the 1997–98 years, according to NOAA’s latest El Niño Advisory, which saw flooding rains across the state. “Right now, it is still too far out and our seasonal forecasting capabilities are very limited,” said Michael Anderson, California’s state climatologist. However, meteorologists are able to forecast possible climate changes that might happen. It’s not possible to predict the day-to-day weather this far in advance. Is it possible to predict what winter 2023 will be like in California? How can I prepare my home for potential storms?.Is climate change intensifying El Niño?.Does a wet winter always mean snow in the forecast?.What are the chances of a super El Niño?.Keep reading for what to know about 2023’s El Niño, from its impact on California’s snow forecast to the timing of weather predictions. With winter just a few months away, climate and weather experts suggest preparing our homes and lives for the worst - major flooding. “There is potential for a lot of strong storms with coastal issues, and we just do not have extensive flood systems on the coast of California,” said Gary Lippner, deputy director for flood management and dam safety with the California Department of Water Resources. That, in turn, can reposition the jet stream and funnel storms toward the West Coast of the U.S., often resulting in increased rainfall across thousands of miles.Ĭlimate forecasters predict a range of strengths for the current El Niño - everything from a moderate to a super El Niño - which can often be characterized by intense warmer downpours. What is El Niño?Įl Niño - the opposite of La Niña, which recently ended a cycle - generally occurs every three to five years when ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm by at least a half-degree Fahrenheit. This weather system has a 75%–85% chance of becoming a strong system from November to January, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. One of those natural factors is the climate pattern known as El Niño, which has returned after a four-year hiatus, ushering in the possibility of yet another stormy winter. The Bay Area’s weather patterns are created by global patterns in the atmosphere, everything from interactions with the ocean, landscape and sun. The answer isn’t quite as simple as forecasters pumping various inputs into computer models that then spit out what we can definitively expect. But just how wet will this winter become? Climate scientists and weather forecasters suspect this winter could be as wet or wetter than last year’s torrential downpours.
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